Lake Ice Occurrence as a Possible Detector of Atmospheric CO sub 2 Effects on Climate. Second Annual Progress Report, 1 December 1983-31 May 1985

摘要

A study has been made of the temporal and spatial patterns of the freeze-up and break-up of lakes in the sub-arctic and middle latitudes of the northern hemisphere, in an attempt to identify the potential effects of warming due to CO sub 2 and other greenhouse effects. Historical records of lake freeze-up/break-up dates and daily temperature at ''neighbouring'' meteorological/climatological stations have been analyzed in order to determine the degree of variance in the lake ice event dates that can be accounted for by simple temperature indices. Lake ice is a prime candidate for ''first effects detection'' of CO sub 2 -induced warming because: (1) it shows a high degree of sensitivity to a single meteorological variable (temperature); (2) it has a short response time to temperature anomalies; (3) a single (in most cases), readily identifiable event (i.e., freeze-up/break-up) is the response to some integral of seasonal temperature conditions; (4) historical records are available to establish lake ice-temperature relationships; (5) freeze-up/break-up of lakes is recorded at a wide network of sites and, in addition, it can be readily monitored by operational satellite data. (ERA citation 10:032131)