Direct and Indirect Costs Arising from Implementation of New Engines

摘要

This report assesses the costs of engine innovation to vehicle manufacturers in particular and to the nation's economy (where all manufacturers introduce new engines simultaneously) in general. The costs of a new passenger-car internal-combustion engine (ICE), including associated transmission costs, are estimated to be $0.8 to 1.4 billion (1981 dollars). The economical volume of production is estimated to be 250,000 units annually. The rate of introduction of new engines - examined over several decades - is found to be highly variable, but the process is synchronized across all manufacturers (simultaneous introduction); changes in fuel cost and quality provide the synchronizing mechanism. Simultaneous introduction of new engines and fuels drives up the real costs of vehicle ownership; the consequent withdrawal of consumers from the marketplace causes vehicle output to fall sharply. Depending on the severity of the cost increases and the duration of the engine-introduction period, the indirect costs to the nation may include a recession, a ''stagnation,'' or a depression. A historical review (including the nineteenth century) shows that this phenomenon is quite general in nature. Advanced research leading to lower costs and greater success in the introduction of new engines could help reduce the indirect costs to the nation. Successful engine innovations improve vehicular efficiency and performance, boosting long-term economic growth. The desirability of research on two innovative automotive engines - the Brayton-cycle and Stirling engines - is assessed. (ERA citation 10:031125)