Effect of a Phase out of Nuclear Power in OECD (Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development) Countries on Demand for Fossil Fuel and on Sulfur Precipitation in Sweden. After Chernobyl

摘要

This report has been prepared to evaluate the effect of a phase out of nuclear generating capacity in OECD countries on the demand for, and price of, coal and oil in 1990 and 1995, and to assess the effect of increased use of fossil fuels on pollution from sulfur precipitation in Sweden. Our forecasts are based on the model which is shown diagrammatically. We begin with overall energy demand and in particular with forecasts of electricity demand in the key OECD countries. Demand is related to existing capacity and to current plans to install new capacity. The fuel demand resulting from these present plans has been calculated - this provides the base case. Existing and planned non-nuclear capacity is then related to demand and the nuclear capacity which must be retained in 1990 and the new non nuclear capacity which must be constructed for 1995 has been estimated. Fuel demand under these new conditions has then been computed and the increase resulting from a nuclear phase out has been calculated. The effect of this increase has been related to overall world demand for fuels and the effect on prices has been predicted. The emission, transport and precipitation of sulfur in Sweden and its neighbours has been considered. The increase in precipitation which will occur as a result of this greater use of fossil fuels has been calculated. (ERA citation 12:038793)