Projected Costs of Generating Electricity from Nuclear and Coal-Fired Power Stations for Commissioning in 1995. A Report by an Expert Group

摘要

This report updates and extends the previous NEA study, ''The Costs of Generating Electricity in Nuclear and Coal-fired Power Stations'', published by the OECD in late 1983. Despite the changed expectations concerning coal prices and the considerable movements in exchange rates since the first study was completed, the conclusions remain essentially the same. Nuclear Power is projected to be economically superior by a significant margin to coal-fired plants for base load electricity production in Europe, Japan and some regions of North America. In areas of North America in close proximity to supplies of cheap coal, this would be the more economic fuel, unless future nuclear investment costs can be reduced to match the best US and Canadian experience. In all regions considered, the economic advantage of both coal and nuclear over oil and gas-fired plants for commissioning in the mid-1990s is expected to be substantial. These conclusions are based on an analysis of cost projections for 900 MWe to 1400 MWe Light Water Reactors to be commissioned in 1995, operating at a levelised load factor of about 72 per cent over an assumed 25 years economic life and calculated with a 5 per cent (real) discount rate. This parallels the reference reactor selected for the NEA report ''The Economics of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle'', which was published by the OECD in June 1985, though it deviates somewhat from the reference conditions of the previous generation cost study. Contemporary coal-fired stations ranging in capacity from 330 MWe to 700 MWe with the same assumed economic life and load factor provide the basis for comparison. Some data are included on CANDU Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors, and a brief comment is annexed on the relevance of the comparisons for the smaller plants that may be of interest to countries with smaller electricity networks or where special circumstances apply. (ERA citation 12:009235)