Representing New Technologies in IFFS (Intermediate Future Forecasting System): Extensions to the Year 2010: Final Report

摘要

The Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) does not explicitly represent technologies, except in the Electric Market Module. Therefore, this paper includes a review of the potential for direct or indirect inclusion of new technologies in IFFS which may penetrate the energy market in the 1986 to 2010 time frame. The econometric representation of technologies in IFFS requires an adjustment to the time trend parameter and prices demanded of the conventional fuels. Since new technologies, by definition, have no history, conventional methods for inclusion of new technologies into an econometric framework are difficult at best. Highlights are given for some of the new technologies. (ERA citation 12:013604)