Disaggregation of Industrial Fossil Fuel Use in the 1985 National Energy Policy Plan: Methodology and Results

摘要

The methodology described here projects use of purchased boiler fuel from 1980 to 2030 for six industrial groups. Three types of information were required to generate these projections: a long-term forecast of total industrial fossil fuel use, forecasts of industrial activity, and relative growth rates of industrial energy intensity. The resulting projections were used as inputs to the Industrial Combustion Emissions (ICE) model, one of the sector models of the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program. In our projections, we used long-term forecasts of fossil fuel use from the 1985 National Energy Policy Plan (NEPP) prepared by the US Department of Energy (DOE). The NEPP provides projections of total industrial energy use from 1980 to 2010 for several fuel types and three economic growth scenarios (base, low, and high). To extend these projections to 2030, total energy use, electricity use, and renewable energy use were extrapolated. We constructed relative rates of growth for energy intensity in each industry group from historical data. Combining the three elements - fossil fuel use, industrial activity, and relative growth rate of energy intensity - yields a disaggregation of total purchased fossil fuel for each industry consistent with the NEPP forecast. Total fossil fuel use is then converted to boiler fuel use by applying some conversion factors constructed from 1980 census data and 1980 ICE model data. The results indicate negligible growth in boiler fuel use for most of the six industries represented in detail in the ICE model. Only the chemical industry has any significant growth in boiler fuel use in the base and high cases. This finding reflects the low growth in fossil fuel use projected by the NEPP, optimistic projections for the chemical industry by DRI, and significant conservation rates in the other industries. (ERA citation 12:009234)