Incorporating ''Fuzzy'' Data and Logical Relations in the Design of Expert Systems for Nuclear Reactors

摘要

This paper applies the method of assigning probability in Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) to the components of rule-based expert systems used in the control of nuclear reactors. Probabilities are assigned to premises, consequences, and rules themselves. This paper considers how uncertainty can propagate through a system of Boolean equations, such as fault trees or expert systems. The probability masses assigned to primary initiating events in the expert system can be derived from observing a nuclear reactor in operation or based on engineering knowledge of the reactor parts. Use of DST mass assignments offers greater flexibility to the construction of expert systems. (ERA citation 12:047439)