Independent Review of Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates. (MDL-NBS-HS-000023, Rev 01)

摘要

The DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) tasked Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) with providing an independent expert review of the documented model and prediction results for net infiltration of water into the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain. The specific purpose of the model, as documented in the report MDL-NBS-HS-000023, Rev. 01, is to provide a spatial representation, including epistemic and aleatory uncertainty, of the predicted mean annual net infiltration at the Yucca Mountain site. The expert review panel assembled by ORISE concluded that the model report does not provide a technically credible spatial representation of net infiltration at Yucca Mountain. Specifically, the ORISE Review Panel found that: A critical lack of site-specific meteorological, surface, and subsurface information prevents verification of (1) the net infiltration estimates, (2) the uncertainty estimates of parameters caused by their spatial variability, and (3) the assumptions used by the modelers (ranges and distributions) for the characterization of parameters. The paucity of site-specific data used by the modeling team for model implementation and validation is a major deficiency in this effort.