Application of an Estimation Model to Predict Future Transients at US Nuclear Power Plants

摘要

A model developed by R.A. Fisher was applied to a set of Licensee Event Reports (LERs) summarizing transient initiating events at US commercial nuclear power plants. The empirical Bayes model was examined to study the feasibility of estimating the number of categories of transients which have not yet occurred at nuclear power plants. An examination of the model's predictive ability using an existing sample of data provided support for use of the model to estimate future transients. The estimate indicates that an approximate fifteen percent increase in the number of categories of transient initiating events may be expected during the period 1983--1993, assuming a stable process of transients. Limitations of the model and other possible applications are discussed. 10 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs. (ERA citation 14:028287)