Use of Expert Judgments in Performance Assessment of HLW (High-Level Radioactive Waste) Repositories.

摘要

This paper summarizes the formal use of expert judgments in the performance assessment of high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repositories. We commence with examples of the previous use of expert judgments in HLW disposal. These examples indicate that experts expressed judgments in a wide range of issues: value judgments, factual judgments, identification, screening, and probability estimates. We present the generic process for the formal elicitation of expert judgments, including available elicitation techniques that can be applied in HLW disposal. We conclude with a brief discussion of the possible formal use of expert judgments in five areas of HLW disposal: (1) scenario development and screening, (2) model development, (3) parameter estimation, (4) information gathering, and (5) strategic repository decisions. 5 refs.