Will Air Quality Needs Force the Development of a Market for Alternative Transportation Fuels

摘要

In response to these calculations, DOE has undertaken a technical assessment of the costs and benefits of developing a flexible-fuel transportation system -- one that could switch between petroleum and an alternative fuel depending on price and availability. The supply analysis is addressing such issues as: where various alternative energy supplies for vehicles could come from, how large a share of the US transportation market those supplies might satisfy, what might a substantial shift to alternative fuels cost, and the relative security of new energy sources vis a vis conventional oil supplies. Concurrent with this activity, the infrastructure (or fuel distribution and vehicle supply) analysis is addressing such issues as: what might the necessary fuel distribution system cost, what are the likely cost and performance characteristics of mass-produced alternative-fuel vehicles, what level of market penetration is likely in the absence of specific government incentives, and how much petroleum might such penetration displace. Likewise, the environmental analysis is examining potential environmental, health and safety constraints, and estimating net environmental benefits associated with particular scenarios of market penetration and petroleum displacement. 4 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.