End-Use Approach to Development of Long-Term Energy Demand Scenarios for Developing Countries

摘要

In this paper, we explore the contribution of developing countries to the demand side of the problem. We present long-term energy demand scenarios for these countries, spanning a wide range of possible rates of global and regional economic growth. The scenarios are called the Rapidly Changing World (RCW) and the Slowly Changing World (SCW). We also examine the impact on each scenario of policies aimed at improving energy efficiency and reducing energy consuming activities for each scenario. These policy scenarios are called the Slow Policy Case (S/Policy) and the Rapid Policy Case (R/Policy). With these scenarios, other researchers can estimate the extent of climate change that may occur due to the emissions resulting from the energy demands we obtain, and determine whether significant reductions in energy demand will mitigate or at least defer the climate effects, allowing more time to develop alternative energy sources whose climate effects are benign. 23 refs., 9 figs., 12 tabs.