Arsenal of democracy in the face of change: Four US mobilizations: A macroeconomic perspective working paper No. 5.

摘要

Opinions on the magnitude of previous US mobilizations vary. This study attempts to resolve these differences by examining US government expenditures as a fraction of the GNP and the magnitude and sources of manpower during wartime. The level of US government national defense expenditures and the simultaneous deployment of manpower, both military and civilian, is taken to be the measure of mobilization. The paper examines the total magnitude of expenditures and manpower in each mobilization, the timing of its implementation and wind-down, and the ease with which the macroeconomy appeared to adapt to the war time conversion. Taking as the bottom line measure of the magnitude of each war, the increment between the premobilization percentage of government expenditures on defense and the average percentage sustained during the mobilization years, then WW II is the largest mobilization at 36.3%. WW I is next at 9.6%, the Korean War is almost a third less at 6.6%, and Vietnam is a minuscule 1.2%. Premobilization military strength was low in both World Wars while for Korea and Vietnam, it was already relatively high. The additional manpower in each of the four mobilizations came from a reduction in prevailing levels of employment, an increase in the working-age population, and an increase in the rate of labor force participation. 10 tabs.