Estimating the effect of generating unit age on EFOR (equivalent forced outage rate) and EAF for coal-fired steam units operating between 1964 and 1981.

摘要

This paper highlights results from phase 1 of a study conducted for the US Department of Energy, wherein we estimated the effect of age on various performance indices associated with the US population of coal-fired steam generating units. Techno-economic relationships between age and (1) equivalent forced outage rate (EFOR), (2) equivalent availability factor (EAF), and (3) heat rate were estimated with time series, cross-sectional econometric models for the period 1964--1981. The effect of age on EFOR and EAF were found to be significant. Although the effects vary by the operating and design characteristics of the unit, some general patterns can be seen. In the first 28 years of operation, it was determined that EFOR deteriorates by 8--9 percentage points due to age, without life extension/plant betterment programs. Improvement in EFOR after age 28 is attributable to a shift in duty cycle (baseload to cycling). The results of EAF with respect to age are similar to those found for EFOR. After an initial improvement, EAF deteriorates by 5--15 percentage points by age 18, depending on steam pressure. 2 figs., 1 tab.