Calibration of groundwater flow models using Monte Carlo simulations and geostatistics.

摘要

Groundwater flow models require specification of several input parameter fields which are inferred from limited data. In this paper the hydraulic conductivity and recharge rate are estimated for an unconfined aquifer under steady flow conditions. Usually point observations of conductivity and head are available for the estimation of the distributed conductivity field and the recharge rate. Use of numerical flow models require that these fields be prescribed as average values over finite elements. The geostatistical solution to this problem uses linear estimation to obtain the distributed conductivity field and the recharge rate. Monte Carlo simulations are used here to compute the covariances associated with the head data. Results obtained for both artificial and real data show that the head data is effective in improving the estimates that would result using conductivity data alone. The use of Monte Carlo simulations results in a method which can be used under a wider variety of modeling conditions than previous applications of the geostatistical approach. 11 refs., 2 figs.