Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide.

摘要

The authors provide background on the uses of expert judgment and on the processes by which humans solve problems, including those that lead to bias. Detailed guidance is offered on how to elicit expert judgment ranging from selecting the questions to be posed of the experts to selecting and motivating the experts to setting up for and conducting the elicitation. Analysis procedures are introduced and guidance is given on how to understand the data base structure, detect bias and correlation, form models, and aggregate the expert judgments.