Development and application of a probabilistic evaluation method for advanced process technologies. Final report.

摘要

The objective of this work is to develop and apply a method for research planning for advanced process technologies. To satisfy requirements for research planning, it is necessary to: (1) identify robust solutions to process design questions in the face of uncertainty to eliminate inferior design options; (2) identify key problem areas in a technology that should be the focus of further research to reduce the risk of technology failure; (3) compare competing technologies on a consistent basis to determine the risks associated with adopting a new technology; and (4) evaluate the effects that additional research might have on comparisons with conventional technology. An important class of process technologies are electric power plants. In particular, advanced clean coal technologies are expected to play a key role in the energy and environmental future of the US, as well as in other countries. Research planning for advanced clean coal technology development is an important part of energy and environmental policy. Thus, the research planning method developed here is applied to case studies focusing on a specific clean coal technology. The purpose of the case studies is both to demonstrate the research planning method and to obtain technology-specific conclusions regarding research strategies.