Spatial and temporal patterns of biotic exchanges of CO(sub 2) between the atmosphere and tropical landscapes and their role in the global carbon balance. Progress report of SUNY-ESF Group

摘要

At SUNY ESF, our overall objective for this year was to finish refining the methods used to convert our previous models of global carbon flux and land use change into a GIS-compatible format. We now have the ability to obtain, convert, and incorporate geographic data into spatial simulation models that describe past carbon exchange patterns, as well as predict future landuse change and carbon exchange. Our initial tests of this model in Peninsula Malaysia have been very promising, in that we are able to successfully predict land use from 1972 to 1982 and even from 1870 to 1970. In this context ''successful'' means that we classify in the model from 80 to 95 percent of the cells correctly, depending upon the number of land use types we try to predict. We are now preparing to apply this model to the entire continent of Africa and to Central America.