Development of a Response Surface Thermal Model for Orion Mated to the International Space Station

摘要

A study was performed to determine if a Design of Experiments (DOE)/Response Surface Methodology could be applied to on-orbit thermal analysis and produce a set of Response Surface Equations (RSE) that accurately predict vehicle temperatures. The study used an integrated thermal model of the International Space Station and the Orion Outer mold line model. Five separate factors were identified for study: yaw, pitch, roll, beta angle, and the environmental parameters. Twenty external Orion temperatures were selected as the responses. A DOE case matrix of 110 runs was developed. The data from these cases were analyzed to produce an RSE for each of the temperature responses. The initial agreement between the engineering data and the RSE predictions was encouraging, although many RSEs had large uncertainties on their predictions. Fourteen verification cases were developed to test the predictive powers of the RSEs. The verification showed mixed results with some RSE predicting temperatures matching the engineering data within the uncertainty bands, while others had very large errors. While this study to not irrefutably prove that the DOE/RSM approach can be applied to on-orbit thermal analysis, it does demonstrate that technique has the potential to predict temperatures. Additional work is needed to better identify the cases needed to produce the RSEs