Summary report: BIOMOVS Chernobyl scenarios A4 (multiple model testing using Chernobyl fallout data of I-131 in forage and milk and Cs-137 in forage, milk, beef and grain) and A5 (dynamics within lake ecosystems)

摘要

To assess dose, many data on the concentrations of radionuclides (particularly (sup 131I) and (sup 137C)s) in various foods were collected world-wide in the days, months and years following the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in 1986. These data, combined with measurements of air concentrations taken during the passage of the plume, and with other measurements of radioactivity in the environment, have been used to test time-integrated and time-dependent predictions of agricultural and aquatic food-chain models. This report reviews two such model validation exercises, one of which examined the air-forage (or grain)-milk/beef pathways, while the other modelled the deposition-water-sediment/fish pathways. Time-dependent results were studied to determine which processes were important. In the aquatic exercise an initial fast transfer to the sediments was identified that had not been accounted for in the models. Parameter values used commonly in models were reassessed in the light of model performance. It was recommended that the transfer factor from feed to milk (F(sub m)) for (sup 131I) be reduced based on new information. Uncertainties about the model predictions were considered. (author). 9 refs., 4 tabs., 3 figs. (Atomindex citation 27:001124)