Comparative Study of Systemic and Domestic Factors Affecting NATO Enlargement toCentral Europe

摘要

NATO enlargement is the most contentious issue affecting the European securityenvironment. Given that it is likely to occur, it is the responsibility of policy analysts and leaders to consider both the expected benefits for and the possible consequences of enlargement upon the overall security environment. To do this, policy makers must have the tools to explore all aspects of the issue. This study attempts to provide three such tools. First, case studies provide a view of some of the systemic and state level shaping affecting the debate in Russia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and the United States. Second, the study pits contending theories of these levels of analysis against each other to see if one does a better job of explaining/predicting state behavior. Finally, the study gives an overview of several policy implications of enlargement, including: how security guarantees will be extended to new members; possible Russian reactions to enlargement; and, strategies for enlargement to ameliorate the expected adverse reaction of the Russians. How NATO expands will direct influence how the Russians react.