Probability Models for Assessing the Value of Battle Damage Assessment in theDefense Against Sequential Theater Missile Attacks

摘要

This thesis seeks to use probability models to investigate the effects and valueof battle damage assessment (BDA) information availability on sequential tasks encountered in the defense against missile attacks. Different levels of information will have different impacts on the outcome of the battle. Additional information could increase the effectiveness of the defensive weapon system. On the other hand, the enemy could use deception techniques, electronic warfare (EW) and Decoy measures on the information-gathering methods to disrupt the acquisition of information which would decrease the effectiveness of defensive weapons. In the models, we show how to best allocate limited resources; i.e. the available kill time, to maximize the reward. We define a measure of effectiveness (MOE) for information which can be used for evaluating information value and decision making. We discuss different strategic alternatives and information value for both defenders and attackers in electronic warfare (EW).