Risk-Based Analysis for Corps Flood Project Studies - A Status Report

摘要

The Corps of Engineers now requires risk-based analysis in the formulation offlood damage reduction projects. This policy is a major departure from past practices and is viewed as a significant step forward in improving the basis for Corps project development. The risk-based approach explicitly incorporates uncertainty of key parameters and functions into project benefit and performance analyses. Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess the impact of the uncertainty in the discharge-probability, elevation-discharge, and elevation-damage functions. This paper summarizes historical project development study methods, describes the risk-based approach, presents application results, and discusses project design implications of the new policy.