Cueing Performance Estimation Using Space Based Observations During Boost Phase

摘要

This paper addresses error statistics for estimates of ballistic missiletrajectory parameters that are computed from observations by space-based infrared (IR) sensors during the boost phase. These error statistics are useful for system level planning and performance estimation of such quantities as cueing accuracy vs time, sensitivity to satellite parameters, or impact point predictions. These statistics assume correct ballistic missile typing, which provides the basis for most of the inputs on which we have based our calculations. We simplify the actual ballistic missile motions to derive error estimates, but do assume both random and bias line-of-sight (LOS) angular errors from the satellites. The results of these error analyses compare favorably with much more detailed 6 degree of freedom simulation analyses and the results are easily embedded in spread sheets. Error statistics are given for the estimates of launch points, azimuth, cross range and down range impact points, and cueing area growth rate.