Introduction to Risk and Uncertainty in the Evaluation of EnvironmentalInvestments

摘要

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Civil Works program has historically evolvedand changed to meet the changing needs and priorities of the Nation. Two relatively recent changes in the Corps' program are of particular interest in this report. They are the increased emphasis on environmental outputs of existing and new projects and the increasing use of risk and uncertainty analysis in the Corps' decision-making processes. The trends toward greater emphasis on environmental outputs and more use of risk and uncertainty analysis began at different times and for different reasons. Now, as environmental activities are routinely undertaken by planning, operations, engineering and construction divisions throughout all Corps districts and risk and uncertainty analyses have reached a level of maturity and acceptance, there is a confluence of these two trends. The national interest in risk and uncertainty analysis had its genesis in the analysis of environmental risk analysis in the late 1960s. The National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) is generally credited with beginning the interest in risk and uncertainty analysis. It stands to reason therefore, that now that the Corps' involvement in environmental activities is reaching a critical mass, the Corps should begin to introduce techniques of risk and uncertainty analysis into its decision process in order to improve the quality of decisions. Introducing risk and uncertainty analysis to the Corps' environmental activities is a new initiative. It will require personnel to learn a few new tricks. But the introduction of risk and uncertainty analysis to this area of endeavor will not impose new significant burdens on analysts or managers.