World Order in the Post-Post-Cold War Era: Beyond the Rogue State Problem

摘要

The objective of the task was to develop a think piece on the emerginginternational security agenda and the role of the United States in a changing world. The paper identifies six alternative futures in the timeframe 2000-2010: Cold War redux, multipolarity, a new medievalism, order enlarged, stagnant order, and contested order. It evaluates the likelihood of these alternatives, arguing that the first three are less likely than the second three in this time frame. It then evaluates likely U.S. preterences, arguing that the United States could cope with each, but would find an enlarging order best suited to national interests and competencies. It turns then to the means to secure this preferred future, especially as they relate to defense policy choices and the use of force. The central argument here is that the United States must respond to challengers to the existing world order in ways that do not motivate other powers to emerge as balancers of U.S. power.