Analysis of Possible Threats to Shipping in Key Southeast Asian Sea Lanes

摘要

International sea lanes through Southeast Asia are important to the economic well-being of billions of people throughout the world. As the interdependence of nations continues to grow, prolonged interruption of the vast amount of merchandise trade through these waters would seriously damage the economies of Southeast Asia and require the trading nations of Asia and the Pacific to make difficult adjustments. This survey assesses the vulnerability of these sea lanes to blockage, focusing on three factors: the likelihood of blockage, to include a realistic appreciation of the possibilities and probabilities of blockage; the extent of blockage, ranging from full blockage to minor disruption or curtailment of maritime traffic; and the duration of blockage, ranging from days to years. Both potential military and non-military causes for blockage are evaluated in terms of these three factors. A separate study by the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) examines the direct economic impact of the blockage of these key straits.