Theory, Doctrine, and Ball Bearings: Adapting Future Technology to Warfare

摘要

This study examines factors influencing the development of theory and doctrinebased on emerging and future technology. It uses the air power theory of Giulio Douhet and the unescorted daylight strategic bombing doctrine of the US Army Air Force to illustrate hazards in projecting into the future as a means of constructing theory and doctrine. This study begins with Douhet's strategic bombing theory. It traces the difficulty in applying the rigor of scientific method to future-based theory as compared to conventional military theory. The analysis focuses on two aspects of the dangers in developing theory based on future or emerging technology along this rational methodology: extrapolation of recent experience into the future and the inherent perishablity of assumptions based on technological advancement.