New Nuclear Conceptions: How We Have Changed the Way We Think About Nuclear Weapons and Why it Matters.

摘要

Rational models of national security decision-making would argue that the observed nuclear transformation is simply a reflection of the reduction in superpower tensions. These models would suggest that policy-makers have reversed their assumptions about the international environment and decided that the new threat environment is such that their national interests allow nuclear reductions. Bureaucratic models of decision-making would add that institutional interests have also played an important role in this transformation. While the end of the cold war itself did provide a basis for altering nuclear postures, it is difficult to explain all of the observed nuclear changes based solely on a reduction in superpower tensions and institutional factors. Indeed, a review of the nuclear polices in the US reveals a pattern that is difficult to explain solely in terms of rational interest-driven strategy. This essay argues that an understanding of nuclear policy-making requires the inclusion of a less tangible factor -- a psychological factor -- which we will call the 'nuclear conception.' Such conceptions underlie most nuclear policies and have likely always played a major role in nuclear strategies. The key conclusion of the essay is that the changes currently apparent in the realm of nuclear policy are in part due to the fact that nuclear conceptions are in the process of fundamental change and these changes will have broader implications for US nuclear strategy. This change in conception, while largely sparked by US-Soviet rapprochement, is deeper than the simple suspension of superpower ideological competition.