Methodology for Estimating the Uncertainty in the Predicted Annual Risk toOrbiting Spacecraft from a Current or Predicted Space Debris Population

摘要

The objective of this research is to investigate and present a better methodologyfor approaching and analyzing environmental problems. This will be accomplished by focusing on a specific environmental problem of current interest, the proliferation of space debris. Environmental problems have a number of characteristics in common. They tend to occur as the result of human development. They affect large segments of the Earth. They are too big to analyze completely. The data available for analysis and decision making usually exhibit a significant amount of uncertainty. And finally, any effective solution generally requires some public action. The purpose of this research is to investigate the uncertainty in what we know about the risk to the International Space Station due to space debris, and clarify the uncertainty in this knowledge. In so doing, it is hoped that a better public understanding can be obtained of the risk, and the inevitable actions that will be required to manage this risk. It is also hoped that this research will demonstrate a methodology for addressing other environmental problems.