This study addresses the goal of managing the future by combining a promisingmetric, strategic planning, probability encoding, risk management, and the Taguchi Design of Experiments technique into a new 'out of the box' methodology for program management. Although the methodology is applicable to many large programs, the United States military technology transfer program partnering Department of Defense laboratories with civilian industries was chosen as the focus for the demonstration. The method demonstrated goes beyond current documented attempts at metric development within the federal program. The result of the research yields useful management information for the technology transfer activity of the Air Force Wright Laboratory. Transferring military technology to civilian industry results in products and services solving deficiencies in food supply, shelter, education, health care, transportation and recreation while simultaneously contributing toward the attaintment of national employment goals yet assuring new capabilities for civil security and national defense. The Wright Laboratory investment in mission related research and development programs which also show promise for potential future technology transfer will benefit from informed management making good decisions. The ability to predict the necessary investment funds to accomplish Cooperative Research and Development Agreements through a method capable of measurement by a proposed metric results from this Program Demonstrating Excellence. This new theoretical approach toward management of federal laboratory research and development programs results in a new methodology grounded in the theory of risk analysis capable of addressing uncertainty as found in technology transfer.
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