Decision Analysis Model for Allocating the Military Family Housing InvestmentBudget

摘要

Allocating resources is a difficult task when resources fall considerably shortof the requirements, and there are many different opinions on what requirements should have priority. The Air Staff Housing Division must decide how to allocate a $25OM/year budget to best achieve the Air Force goals for military family housing. The decision is complex because requirements are much larger than the available resources, and there are many conflicting objectives to consider. This research uses value-focused thinking and multiattribute utility theory to develop a decision analysis model to assist the decision maker in selecting a budget strategy. A deterministic analysis (using Logical Decisions software package) on the data submitted from four Major Commands (MAJCOMs) demonstrates the model's capabilities by ranking 87 budget strategies based on how well they meet the decision maker's objectives. The model allows for sensitivity analysis to display the effects of changes in the decision maker's preferences and changes in the input data. Overall, the model provides a set of tools that can help the Air Staff make a better decision that is quantifiable, transparent, and defensible. It also provides metrics to evaluate how effective the military family housing investment program is in meeting Air Force goals.