U.S. Agricultural Exports Strong Growth Likely But U.S. Export AssistancePrograms' Contribution Uncertain

摘要

Domestic agricultural policy in the United States was significantly changed bythe 1996 Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act. Although it continues to provide income support to farmers for the next 5 years, FAIR reduces the government's role in regulating the production of bulk commodities such as wheat and corn and provides the agricultural sector and farmers enhanced flexibility to respond to domestic and international market conditions. We assessed (1) the way in which FAIR will likely affect U.S. agricultural exports and (2) the continued relevance of U.S. agricultural export assistance programs. To address FAIR'S potential impact on U.S. exports, we interviewed a wide range of U.S. and competitor nation agricultural experts, analyzed available studies and reports authored by some of these experts, and reviewed and discussed the agricultural trade components of various economic models. To evaluate the programs' relevance, we reviewed both qualitative and quantitative evidence regarding the extent to which the programs benefit the overall U.S. economy, benefit the U.S. agricultural sector and specific U.S. commodities, counter competitor nations' agricultural export programs, and promote U.S. trade negotiating objectives.