Third Wave or Third Strike: The Future of the Nation-State and the Utility ofArmed Force

摘要

Many scholars and analysts have predicted changes in the global political orderof the next century. Some foresee a shift in emphasis from nation-states to ethnic, religious, or cultural groupings. Others anticipate that growing global social and economic interdependence will facilitate the emergence of a variety of new nonstate actors. In either case, the position of the nation-state as the preeminent sovereign unit in the global order could change, and with it the utility of armed forces. This paper examines the key features of these two types of models for future global order, assesses their impact on the utility of armed forces in general, and draws implications for U.S. armed forces in particular.