Model Validation Against The Modelers' Data Archive.

摘要

The Modelers Data Archive (MDA) was used to validate the RAILCAR toxic industrial chemical (TIC) source characterization model and the Vapor, Liquid, and Solid Tracking (VLSTRACK) atmospheric transport and dispersion (ATD) model for dense gas releases. The source term predictions from RAILCAR were compared to the field trial descriptions in the MDA report. The RAILCAR source parameters were input into VLSTRACK, and the downwind plume results were statistically compared to the MDA data. The RAILCAR-VLSTRACK model proves to be a viable model for the release of TICs into the environment, although the bias and accuracy were not as good as some other ATD models. VLSTRACK was designed to simulate an attack, whereas the field trials in the MDA were highly controlled releases mostly leading to large area vapor sources. The greatest source of error is likely due to the inability of VLSTRACK to simulate an area vapor source. RAILCAR is being integrated into two other ATD models as part of this project, and validation results are expected to show significant improvement.