Lange Wellen - Ein Dogmengeschichtlicher Rueckblick (Long Trends - A review of a Historical Doagma)

摘要

This discussion paper reviews the history of the theory that economic performance follows a pattern of long-term trends demonstrating a progression from contraction to expansion and back. One of the pioneers of this doctrine was the economist Joseph Schumpeter, who is better known for the concept of 'creative destruction'. Although the long-term doctrine has many critics, the author maintains that long- term trends characterize certain historical regularities in the development of an economy. Since the onset of industrialization, the length of the trend is 45-60 years. There are several explanations for this pattern, including basic innovation, capital stock adjustment, the social and political environment, and military activity. The author suggests that the reason such trends have not been demonstrated statistically is the inherent complexity of economic development.