Missed Opportunity? Was Iran s Green Movement an Unconventional Warfare Option?

摘要

Following the disputed 2009 Iranian Presidential elections, the Green Movement demonstrated reformist insurgency potential. Capable movement leadership mobilized resistance groups, tempered participant violence, and espoused objectives compatible with strategic US interests. Despite undisputed constitutional authority, Supreme Leader Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' vicious response to protests highlighted systemic weaknesses vulnerable to non-violent political struggle. Could the United States have capitalized on the Green Movement's activities after the 2009 presidential election to coerce change in the Iranian government advantageous to US interests? This thesis applied a hybrid doctrinal Unconventional Warfare (UW) feasibility criteria and social movement theory to examine Green Movement sponsorship potential. Research concluded successful insurgency criteria and existing regional mechanisms provided the United States Government with UW options.