Statistical Analysis of the Deterrence and Substitution Effects of the Military Services' Drug Prevention Programs

摘要

This thesis measures the deterrence and substitution effects of the military's drug testing program. Data used is from the 1995 (PB96-129051) and 1980 versions of the Department of Defense 'Survey of Health Related Behaviors Among Military Personnel' and the 1995 (PB97-171243) and 1979 versions of the 'National Household Survey on Drug Abuse.' The statistical analyses examine three separate but related topics: (1) The deterrence effect of the military's drug prevention programs; (2) The possible substitution of legal for illegal substances; and (3) The role of selection bias in estimates of the deterrence effect. The results indicate that the military's drug testing program is a deterrence to illicit drug use. The results also provide evidence that the military's drug testing program produces an unanticipated positive effect of reducing heavy alcohol consumption. Lastly, results of our analysis indicate that there is no selection bias; individuals who are likely to choose military service would not be less prone to use illicit drugs than their civilian counterparts in the absence of the testing program.