Methodology for the Analysis and Prediction of Air Force Enlisted Aircraft Maintenance Personnel Retention Rates Using Economic Statistics

摘要

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of certain national economic indicators on enlisted aircraft maintenance personnel retention rates. To fulfill this purpose, this study builds a linear regression equation that can predict the retention rate using the civilian unemployment rate and the index of 11 leading economic indicators as the independent variables. Journal literature and economic texts were reviewed to identify the indicators as good predictors for changes in employee turnover. The method of linear regression was used to build the model needed to predict the changes in the retention rate. The equation developed with this technique in the present research may help the Air Force Personnel Center predict future enlisted retention rate changes. AFPC's task of keeping a steady force has a central need of knowing the number of personnel that will be staying and leaving the force. The results of this study show a strong relationship between the future retention rate of the enlisted aircraft maintenance force and the unemployment rate and the index of 11 leading indicators.