Exploratory Analysis of the Responsiveness Capability of the Air Expeditionary Wing (AEW) Concept

摘要

Seven AEF deployments have been accomplished in the Southwest Asia area of responsibility; none have met the Air Force's stringent 72 hour criterion. This exploratory study quantifies the responsiveness capability of the AEW concept. Based on a Monte Carlo simulation methodology this study concludes that the on call AEW at Mountain Home AFB does not have the capability to meet the 72 hour criterion. Additionally, this study examined the effect of three departures from the baseline model on responsiveness capability. These departures included: increasing airlift throughput capacity, incorporating limited airlift failure, and employing an air refueling scenario. The simulation models incorporating these departures resulted in the respective approximate probabilities of 90%, 0%, and 28% for meeting the 72 hour criterion. The limitations of this study are discussed in the context of both the results and their implications, and future research is suggested toward quantifying policy/ resource alternatives to assist senior Air Force decision makers.