Framework for the Statistical Analysis of Probability of Mission Success Based on Bayesian Theory.

摘要

The Mission Success Prediction Capability (MSPC) is a Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) approach to mission planning, used for analysis of complex systems of precision strike (air-to-surface) weapons. This report focuses on developing a statistical method for evaluating the probability of mission success in these situations. Bayesian networks are used as a framework for calculation of the probability in question, and a general methodology for the evaluation is formed and demonstrated in this report.