Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Policy in Search of Direction

摘要

The list of countries possessing or building weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs is growing, indicating that the traditional non-proliferation regimes of the Cold War era may have slowed but could not prevent the proliferation of WMD. The worldwide diffusion of information, globalization, advances in science and technology, and changes in the distribution of world power are creating powerful inducements and opportunities for states to proliferate, and devaluing traditional non-proliferation measures. Nuclear testing by India and Pakistan in May 1998 was not simply a non-proliferation policy failure. Rather, it was the predictable outcome of complex world change and porous non-proliferation regimes. Future non-proliferation efforts must target 'demand', the inducements and political will to proliferate, more so than 'supply', and must focus at the regional level. In a world of continuing proliferation, greater resources should be applied toward counter- proliferation.