Interpreting Shadows: Arms Control and Defense Planning in a Rapidly Changing Multi-Polar World

摘要

The focus of arms control is changing. It now deals with issues affecting all nations and not just the super powers. A new framework for approaching non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and arms control could focus on a two-fold policy initiative. The first policy would be a new strategic 'triad' built around conventional capability including rapidly deployable forces, regional ballistic missile defense, and long-range precision-strike capability. The second policy would employ an information strategy using the current diplomatic initiatives that appear to be the most productive, or unilateral and multilateral export controls, military assistance in the form of infrastructure, and confidence building measures. Continued success in arms control requires abandoning Cold War policies. Emerging policies will need to appreciate different world views. Good intelligence will be a key factor in the success of any policy orientation and its implementation. The focus needs to change from arms control involving the superpowers to arms control involving everyone.