Next Convoy War: The American Campaign Against Enemy Shipping in the Twenty-First Century

摘要

In the coming century, the United States may find herself at war with a determined and capable opponent. A campaign against Orange commercial shipping will be a facet of the strategic warfare waged against this opponent. The Orange nation may attempt to protect her open-ocean trade routes by convoying her merchant vessels, but will find that American naval power in the age of Network Centric Warfare is too powerful to compete with outside the range of land-based support. The Orange nation will be able to exercise a degree of area denial near her shores, using barrier minefield and land-based air and sea defenses. The American forces will have great difficulty in shutting down the littoral trade routes, due partially to the limitations of weapons technology and partially to the shortage of delivery platforms capable of operation in the Orange denial area. Advanced weapons technology could help improve the success rate, as could a greater attention to offensive naval mining capability. To maximize the impact of the anti-shipping campaign, American forces should attack Orange ports directly. The Orange nation will respond to American successes by shifting her domestic transport mechanisms to air- or land-based vehicles where practical. This shifting will reduce the impact of the American anti-shipping efforts, unless the American forces also take steps to eliminate the alternate transport methods. If escalation concerns prevent strikes against the Orange homeland, the war against Orange domestic commerce may not be 'winnable' at all.