Bestimmung des Einflussfaktors Zufall (Determining the Impact of Chance on Soccer Matches. Quantification With the Help of Betting Spreads in the Context of Efficient Gambling Markets)

摘要

The author attempts to quantify the impact of chance on the results of soccer matches. He defines chance as any circumstance that could not be foreseen. Examples are poor calls by the referees, shots that are deflected by the bars of the net, the impact of weather, bumps or other defects in the playing field, injuries to key players, and goals after regulation time has expired. The author maintains that betting spreads take into account the element of chance. Gambling markets reflect both weak and semi strong information efficiency, but not strong efficiency. Thus, publicly available information is taken into account, but not insider information. Contending that the type of sport is irrelevant, the author refers to the Anglo-Saxon literature concerning sports gambling. The author concludes that in the 1997/98 German Bundesliga season, 53.8 percent of the 163 matches were decided by chance.