Modeling and Analysis of Human Error in Naval Aviation Maintenance Mishaps

摘要

This study investigates human error associated with 599 Naval Aviation maintenance-related mishaps (MRMs) in Fiscal Years 90-99. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System Maintenance Extension (HFACS-ME) taxonomy was utilized to classify contributory human errors within a robust theoretical framework. Variable Poisson process models are developed to predict MRMs and relationships between the error dimensions are investigated. The results of this study show that the HFACS-ME taxonomy provides an adequate framework for the classification of MRM causal factors; that variable Poisson process models are suitable for predicting future mishaps, and that there are significant relationships between selected causal dimensions; sufficient to warrant further investigation. These results provide information regarding the predicted impact of MRMs on future operational readiness and mission capability. Through being aware of these aspects, decision-makers are armed with the knowledge to make better decisions concerning the preservation and allocation of the resources at their disposal.