Statistical Performance Measures of the HWM-93 And MSISE-90 Empirical Atmospheric Models and the Relation to Infrasonic CTBT Monitoring

摘要

An enforceable Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) will require accurate detection and location of low-yield nuclear detonations. Thorough knowledge of the upper atmosphere and advanced modeling techniques are required for reliable infrasonic detection and location of clandestine events. The purpose of this paper is to document a statistical performance measures study of the Naval Research Laboratory's (NRL) empirical upper atmospheric models. These models known as the MSISE-90 and HWM-93 models were originally developed at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and made freely available to the public and scientific research communities. The Upper Atmospheric Physics branch at NRL is working toward the production of improved versions of these empirical upper atmospheric models for use in verification and compliance with the CTBT. This study identifies weak areas in the current models for planning and implementation of future upgrades. In this report, we detail model performance in two atmospheric regions; 0 to 50 km and 50 to 120 km. This report primarily focuses on systematic biases in the wind model (HWM).