Case Study: Sensitivity Analysis of the Barataria Basin Barrier Shoreline Wetland Value Assessment Model

摘要

Sensitivity analysis is a technique for systematically changing parameters in a model to determine the effects of such changes on model outcomes. It is an essential tool for model building and quality assurance. Sensitivity analysis also compliments uncertainty analysis because sensitivity analysis orders input importance by determining variation in output and by identifying important response thresholds. This technical note provides an example application of sensitivity analysis in support of ecosystem restoration planning. It is intended to supplement other publications about Environmental Benefits Analysis (EBA) that discuss a broader array of sensitivity techniques and applications. On average, Louisiana's coastal marshes are receding at alarming rates due to a number of factors, including: sea level rise, river- marsh disconnection, local consolidation and subsidence, and coastal erosion. The Barataria Basin Barrier Shoreline (BBBS) restoration project was identified through the Louisiana Coastal Area (LCA) program as critical to maintaining the Caminada Headland and Shell Island reaches of the Gulf shoreline to prevent larger scale, potentially irreversible ecosystem impacts. Large-scale ecosystem restoration projects require extensive planning and analysis prior to implementation to ensure the most effective alternatives are selected.