Dire Demographics. Population Trends in the Russian Federation

摘要

In the past decade, the Russian Federation has experienced many seemingly unfavorable demographic trends, the two most significant of which are a declining number of births and a rising number of deaths. These trends are likely to continue for some time. Some analysts fear that the Russian population, currently at about 145 million, could decline to less than 100 million. This demographic decline raises several issues for Russia, including the need for health care improvements; the challenges posed by a declining working-age population to support a growing elderly population; and still other issues affecting Russia's ability to reform its economy, government, and society. This report examines trends in overall population size, fertility rates, and mortality rates and issues in health care, elderly support, and national security arising from these trends. Since 1992, the population of Russia has declined by three million. The annual number of Russian births fell by 1.3 million between 1987 and 1999, while the annual number of Russian deaths increased by 500,000. Net immigration has prevented Russian population losses from being even greater, with many ethnic Russians migrating to Russia from borderlands formerly in the Soviet Union. The most recent statistics, however, indicate that this ethnic Russian immigration is declining and, as a result, it is unlikely to be an important source of population stabilization in the future. There is also public resistance to immigration and concerns about the security risks created by immigration of nonethnic Russians. If Russian immigration cannot be increased, then the only other alternatives for population stability are to increase birth rates or to reduce death rates.