Search for Increased Knowledge, Reach and Precision in War

摘要

During the night of 24 March 1999, heavily-loaded warplanes battered their way through the thick clouds that lay across the border of Yugoslavia, their lights blacked out, their radios silenced, searching for the release points programmed into their memories. From there they would attempt to destroy radars, missile and gun emplacements, command centers and communications relays1. Nineteen governments had agreed to send those planes to kill Yugoslavs and destroy their property even though these were inside the boundaries of their own country. The attackers' aim was not to conquer Yugoslavia or prevent Yugoslavia from conquering them, nor even to overthrow the Yugoslav government. It was to extend an invitation. More precisely, it was to re-extend an invitation that had already been refused - for Yugoslavia to determine, along with its neighbors, a way of dealing with its internal problems that was acceptable not just to Yugoslavia, but to everyone at the table2. This rather strange use of military force was the result of a little- recognized phenomenon. That phenomenon is an evolutionary step which has occurred in international conflict. That step results from increasing interdependence and communication between nations, which reduces freedom of action for some and increases it for others. It rests upon a conception - which is accepted by a growing number of states and non-state actors - that wars and other forms of international conflict stem from the collision of policies which are espoused by two or more opposing groups; that these groups are relatively small, elite circles within their respective countries or populations; and that conflict is resolved by acting on the consensus inside that small circle. In itself, this concept represents nothing new - it has always been true, but it has been largely irrelevant for the military strategist, until now.